CK Odds Page
2013 CK Post-draft Odds
(This is not the projected order of finish but merely the odds of winning the league)
Fear the Beard 40-1: Brad had a big handicap (self inflicted) going into the draft and the final product shows. On offense there is lots of speed but a serious lack of quality depth and power. On the pitching Brad does have 5 closers but the starting staff is a mess. After Bumgarner it gets dicey. With the lack of picks he should have just taken a couple of closers and focused on other areas.
Best Pick: Salvador Perez in the 9th round. Love his potential at the plate.
Worst Pick : Adam Eaton in the 14th round. He is out for 2 months.
Key Player: Dan Haren needs to be the old Dan Haren for Brad to have a prayer.
Naptown Bombers 25-1: This is Kyle's first year in CK. On the offensive side he has a very good infield (except at SS) but a lackluster outfield. Batting Average may be a concern. On the pitching side there are no closers or middle releivers. So off the bat Kyle is "punting" a category. Strasburg is a fine anchor on the starting staff but with an innings limit having so many starters doesn't make sense. Overall there is talent on this squad but the team is poorly constructed. This roster would be better in a H2H league.
Best Pick: CJ Wilson in the 11th round. A very good value at that point of the draft.
Worst Pick: Carl Crawford in the 9th round. What can we honestly expect from this guy? A trip to the DL? Return to form?
Key Player: Brett Lawrie is already hurt and underperformed last year. He needs to get healthy and perform like a 2nd rounder in the middle of that killer lineup.
Fightin Phils 15 to 1: Heller has a very interesting offense. It is pretty well balanced but very risky. In Utley, Kubel, Doumit, Sandoval, Hart, and Papi you have guys that are currently hurt and or injury prone. If the bats stay healthy Heller might be able to compete. On the pitching side Hamels and Weaver are nice 1-2 punch. Anibal and Kuroda are decent middle of the rotation types. Heller has a decent bullpen. All in all this team could make some noise.
Best Pick: Pedro Alvarez in the 17th round. Anytime you can get 30 bombs that late in a draft at a very banged up and thin position you did a great job.
Worse Pick: Tim Lincecum in the 9th round. Not a horrible pick but something just isn't right with the freak.
Key Player: Tim Lincecum can still get the K's but if his ratios don't improve it could sink a staff.
Big Rouse Machine 15 to 1: This is the best team Adam has gone into the season with. The lineup is solid and balanced all the way around. I like the depth of the starting pitching. The bullpen however is another story. Madson is hurt, and while Pestano and Robertson are great closers in waiting he will need a couple of closers to compete with the big boys. This might be the CK "come out of nowhere team".
Best Pick: Willin Rosario towards the end of round 7. This kid has tons of power and plays half his games in Denver.
Worst Pick: Kris Medlen in the 2nd round. I'm not a huge spring stats guy but Medlen has been getting lit up. He was so good down the stretch last year. Can he repeat it? Can he survive the grind? Mat Latos would have been a better pick in that spot.
Key Player: Bryce Harper appears to be the real deal. Studs win CK Championships...............
Mooseknuckle and Son 11 to 1: Trainor had lots of extra draft picks and did a nice job drafting. He features a well balanced solid lineup. Trainor has a nice rotation featuring a top 3 of Cliff Lee, James Shields, and Johnny Cueto. The bullpen is workable especially if Motte gets healthy. Overall a solid team that should be very competitive.
Best Pick: Shin Soo Choo in the 6th round.
Worst Pick: Jason Motte in the 6th round.
Key Player: Roy Halladay needs to add quality depth to T's rotation. He hasn't looked right in quite a while.
The Greasy Palms 10 to 1: BP did a decent job in the draft. His lineup is well rounded but may struggle in average. Lots of hackers on that squad. Pitching wise Billy only has 4 starters. He has an Ace in King Felix, an underated # 2 in Latos, a solid 3 in Kennedy, and a young gun in Matt Harvey. Other than Marmol that is a loaded bullpen. Starting pitching depth could be a problem. One of these years BP might make another run. It will not be this one if he isn't more active.
Best Pick: Justin Mourneau in the 20th round was a nice value. He seems to be past his concussion problems.
Worst Pick: Jason Kipnis in the 2nd round. He struggled quite a bit in the 2nd half of last year. His minor league numbers suggest that the steals were a fluke.
Key Player: Matt Harvey needs to give BP about 175 innings with 14 Wins, 3.25 ERA, 160 K's, and a decent Whip.
Mojo' Risin' 8 to 1: The rotation is top heavy with Kershaw, Gio, and Greinke. Vogelsong and Harrison are solid options. Fagan has a lethal bullpen that will generate a boatload of K's and Saves. On the offensive side I have one question: Where's the Beef? The lineup features lots of speed but as has been the case the past two seasons not enough pop.
Best pick: Ike Davis in the 7th round. He is one guy who didn't need the Mets to bring the fences in.
Worst pick: Zach Greinke in round 2 when you took Gio in the 1st and already had Kershaw, Kimbrel, and Chapman. Even if Greinke stays healthy and pitches well why in that spot would you not grab a bat?
Key Player: David Freese/Manny Machado. Fagan needs Freese to stay healthy (doubtful) and or Machado (who is very talented) to break out.
RAINING BLOOD 6 to 1: This would have been 5 to 1 had Swids not traded away a power bat for a closer a couple of days ago. On offense I see a pretty decent lineup but one that lacks elite speed, depth, and might be a tick short on power. The key lies in V-Mart and Tulo. Swids will have to be patient with V-Mart and pray Tulo doesn't get injured. Depth might be a concern, I see some waiver fodder fat in that lineup. On the pitching side of things Cain is a rock but after that Swids will rely on uber talented guys like Matt Moore, Scherzer, and Josh Johnson. All of these guys have different question marks. The bullpen is rock solid. All in all this is a workable team and Swids will make 8 million moves to improve his squad. Both a strength and a weakness.
Best pick: Nick Swisher at the end of the 9th round. 25 HR's, High 80's in Ribs, 75 Runs, and a .270 Avg. Not flashy but solid and qualifies at 1B/OF.
Worst pick: Ryan Howard in the 3rd round was a reach. Its kind of ironic because I blasted Swids for trading him. I like Howard to bounce back this year. He might hit 35 bombs if healthy, however he was taken too early. First Base is fairly deep this year. On ESPN his ADP was 102.6, so factoring in our keepers and such Swids took him around 75th overall.
Key Player: It's all about Tulo staying healthy for two reasons. One he puts up premium numbers at a weak position. Secondly having Tulo healthy means that Cargo won't sulk like he did towards the tail end of last season.
It's Cadillac Time! 4 to 1: I really like the lineup overall. It has a lot of power and speed. There is a slight concern with batting average and depth. On the pitching side Sly has the fab four in Verlander, Wainwright, Jordan Zimmerman, and Chris Sale. I was all set to take Wainwright with my 1st pick and think he will have a Cy Young caliber year. The bullpen is solid. There aren't too many holes on this team. The question is can Sly finally win this league?
Best Pick: Michael Cuddyer in the 18th round provides some solid depth. I expect him to have a bounce back season after last years injury plagued one.
Worst Pick: I don't really see one that stands out in a bad way. Maybe Broxton but at the time he was the closer.
Key Player: Evan Longoria and Albert Pujols. Will Longoria put a full season together and will age and injury finally catch up with Mr Pujols?
Bier's Chuggernaut 3 to 1: Overall despite the lack of picks Bier is still the favorite. The lineup is solid from top to bottom both positionally and category wise. Bier took what the draft gave him and crafted a well balanced and deep lineup. On the pitching side Bier really wanted Adam Wainwright but had to settle for RA Dickey. The pre-season acquisition of David Price was key, even though long term Heyward has more value. Price gives Bier and ACE which something he hasn't had in quite a long time. The rest of the staff features a couple of upside plays in Morrow and Minor with AJ Burnett rounding out the 5th spot. The bullpen is a tad thin with only 2 closers and a possible Tiger closer. The Chuggernaut has the pedigree and the talent to make a run at # 6.
Best Pick: Josh Willingham in the 11th round. 30 bombs and 100 Ribs in the middle of the draft is hard to argue with.
Worst Pick: Brandon Morrow in the 6th round. Not that it was a bad spot to take him but will he realize his potential?
Key Player: Oh Canada! Bier needs Dickey and Morrow to produce. We know what Dickey's Floor and Ceiling is. I figure this year somewhere in between.
2013 CK Pre-draft Odds
(This is not a projected order of finish but merely the odds of winning the league)
Adam 20 to 1: Adam has some health question marks at keeper. Matt Kemp is coming off of shoulder surgery, Ryan Zimmerman always seems to be dinged up, and CC Sabathia had arm problems for the first time last season. Desmond Jennings is a decent transition option but seems to be injury prone. What Adam does have is a great couple of Rule V'ers this year with Bryce Harper in round 12 and Yu Darvish in round 22. Overall there is some decent talent on this team, however Adam has shown nothing in his CK career. Could he pull a "2012 Brad" and surprise everyone?
Heller 20-1: Votto, Matt Holliday, and Cole Hamels are a solid but not spectacular group of keepers. Goldschmidt as a transition makes sense. Addison Reed in the 22nd round is good. About the middle of last season after spending 1 day in 1st place Heller boasted about not making a lot of moves and just going with the guys he drafted. That got him a 6th place finish......................
Trainor 16-1: Even though Arms go fast in CK, James Shields is not a keeper. On the flip side Miguel Cabrera is a fantasy God and Cliff Lee still has elite skills (despite the paltry 6 Wins last year). Giancarlo Stanton as a Transitional coupled with Moustakas in round 12 gives Trainor some serious young Power. Shelby Miller if he wins a rotation spot is worth a flier in round 22. Just 2 years ago Trainor was a fingernail away (on the last moment of the regular season) from winning this league. He is armed with a ton of draft picks.
Billy 15 to 1: BP has a solid set of keepers in Justin Upton, Jose Bautista, and King Felix. Jay Bruce is a worthy transition pick. Rule V will yield virtually nothing unless Trevor Bauer makes the Indian rotation and pitches well. BP is a solid CK Vet and former champ but gets too gun shy sometimes when comes to pulling the trigger.
Brad 15 to 1: Brad finally turned his team around last season and has built an impressive group of young up and coming keepers. Jason Heyward, Starling Castro, and Madison Bumgarner are a nice start. Andrew McCutchen as a transition pick is a steal. The problem Brad faces this year is the perhaps the worse draft pick situation in the entire league. His Rule V'ers are kind of weak in Dustin Ackley and Billy Hamilton. In my opinion he took Hamilton a year too early. I don't see a serious run the cards for this season but next year look out.
Kyle 13 to 1: Kyle is the wild card in CK this year. He takes over a team with some good keepers in Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler, and Adrian Gonzalez. Stephen Strasburg shouldn't have too many restrictions this year and is a great transition guy. Rule V wise Dominic Brown is iffy at best in the 12th round. Julio Teheran has been lighting it up in spring training and if he wins a spot is surely worth a 22nd rounder. New guys in CK generally struggle in their first year but Kyle has the talent to make some noise.
Swids 6 to 1: Mike has some good keepers at scarce positions. The key is Tulowitzki. The guy never stays healthy for the entire year. Pedroia and Matt Cain are both kind of boring but very solid. Cargo is a top 10 pick being kept in the transitional round. Rule V wise Swids paid a high price last year for the right to take Matt Moore in the 22nd round. The kid is a stud, he just needs some more experience. Swids is a dedicated and active owner who has his name on the trophy twice. He also has a bunch of extra picks which makes him dangerous.
Sly 5 to 1: The Sly man has a monster group of keepers/transition in Braun, Pujols, Verlander, and Evan Longoria. Those are 2 top 10 talents and 2 more just outside the top 10. Rule V wise Chris Sale is a good pick in round 12. Sly has finished in 2nd far too many times. The question as always.............Is this the year?
Fagan 3 to 1: For total depth Fagan might have the best group in CK. You start off with Kershaw, Hanley Ramirez, and Jose Reyes as keepers. Then you have the best catcher on the planet as a transition pick. Top it off with the best Closer (Kimbrel) in round 12 and a 5 tool outfielder named Cespedes in round 22. Fagan has some scarce positions covered. The only thing lacking is a true Power Bat. Fagan has his name on the trophy twice and just about always contends.
Bier Even Money: Last year at about pick 136 Bier cashed in a lottery ticket by the name of Mike Trout. Even more amazing is that he dropped him for a while and then picked him up 2 days before his callup. Those two things led Bier to his 5th CK title. The rest of the team aint too shabby either with Robinson Cano, Prince Fielder, David Wright and David Price as a transition. The overall talent base of this team has it all: Power, Speed, Quality Hitters, and an elite Arm. The only negative is a moderate lack of draft picks.